December 31, 2008

Kendall Rogers
Rivals.com College Baseball Editor

With the 2009 season less than two months away, many teams that graced our rankings at the end of the '08 season have the potential to be afterthoughts this spring. Other teams, however, have a chance to take another step forward.

We start with defending national champion Fresno State and discuss which teams ranked at the end of last season will be better or not as good this spring.

Fresno State: Not as good
The Bulldogs once again will have a strong offense with Tommy Mendonca, Steve Detwiler, Alan Ahmady and Danny Muno leading the charge, but the pitching staff leaves something to be desired because of several key departures, including Justin Wilson, Justin Miller, Clayton Allison and Brandon Burke. If the Bulldogs return to Omaha this spring, it certainly would be a huge surprise.

Georgia: Not as good
The Bulldogs have a history of tanking after each trip to Omaha, but this season should be a different story. Though Georgia must replace position players Ryan Peisel and Gordon Beckham, it welcomes back Rich Poythress, Bryce Massanari, Matt Cerione and others. While the offense is in good shape, the pitching staff has some work to do even with the return of weekend starter Trevor Holder and sophomore left-hander Alex McRee.

North Carolina: Better
Yes, it's possible for the Tar Heels to be better than they have been the past few seasons. Though UNC must find a way to replace Tim Fedroff, Tim Federowicz, Seth Williams and Rob Wooten, it welcomes back several key cogs. UNC will have another productive offense with Dustin Ackley and Kyle Seager leading the way. The pitching staff, meanwhile, is in excellent shape with weekend starters Alex White and Matt Harvey back in the mix. The Tar Heels have balance and that usually leads to much success.

Stanford: Not as good
The Cardinal returned to the national spotlight last season with another trip to the College World Series, but it has some work to do to accomplish the same goal this spring. Though Stanford has a wealth of talent on campus, it has many holes to fill on the mound and at the plate. On the mound, weekend starters Jeremy Bleich and Erik Davis must be replaced. Two-way talent Austin Yount also is a tough loss. At the plate, Jason Castro, Cord Phelps, Sean Ratliff and Randy Molina definitely will be tough to replace. The Cardinal probably will be ranked at some point this season, but as good as last season? Probably not.

LSU: Better
The Tigers must find a way to replace first baseman Matt Clark and weekend starter Ryan Verdugo, but other than those key departures, the Tigers are in excellent shape entering the season. LSU will have one the nation's best offense with the return of Ryan Schimpf, Leon Landry, Blake Dean, Micah Gibbs and D.J. LeMahieu. The Tigers also received an offseason boost when veteran pitcher Louis Coleman decided to return to school for another season. The Tigers are absolutely loaded this spring.

Miami: Not as good
The Hurricanes have so many holes to fill at the plate we're not real sure where to start. However, they have enough talent to overcome those departures at some point this spring. While Yasmani Grandal, Ryan Jackson, Jason Hagerty and others must rise to the occasion at the plate this spring, the pitching staff should be in good shape even with the loss of weekend starter Eric Erickson, who will miss the season because of an arm injury. Chris Hernandez and Kyle Bellamy once again will spearhead the pitching staff.

Florida State: Not as good
The Seminoles probably won't be as good as they were last season, but that may not be horrible news considering how good they were. While the Seminoles welcome back key position players such as Stuart Tapley, Jason Stidham and Mike McGee, they must find a way to replace weekend starters Matt Fairel and Elih Villanueva, who finished last season with ERA's of 3.79 and 4.01. If FSU wants to return to Omaha, likely weekend starters Geoff Parker and John Gast must rise to the occasion this spring.

Rice: Not as good
The Owls probably won't be as good as they were last season, but the program still is in excellent shape and will contend for another Omaha berth. The Owls must find a way to replace pitchers Cole St. Clair, Bobby Bell, Bryan Price, Chris Kelley and Matt Langwell. They must also replace position players Aaron Luna, J.P. Padron, Adam Zornes and Jared Gayhart. Though the Owls have major holes to fill, coach Wayne Graham is confident his team is in fine shape this spring. Still, I don't see this Rice team being better than last year's squad.

Arizona State: Not as good
Barring a major surprise this spring, the Sun Devils are due for a down year. Though ASU should be ranked based on talent, particularly at the plate, it still has major holes to fill. In addition to replacing Ike Davis, Brett Wallace, Petey Paramore, Kiel Roling and other position players, the Devils literally welcome back one stud pitcher, junior right-hander Mike Leake, who finished last season with an ERA of 3.49 in 121 1/3 innings of work. If coach Pat Murphy can guide this team to Omaha, it would be an impressive feat.

Cal State Fullerton: Better
Despite losing pitchers Jeff Kaplan, Cory Arbiso and Adam Jorgenson to the MLB Draft this past summer, coach Dave Serrano still believes his pitching staff is in great shape this spring. If that actually is the case, the Titans will be very dangerous. While sophomore right-hander Daniel Renken leads the pitching staff, the offense will be led by veterans Josh Fellhauer and Jared Clark and sophomores Christian Colon and Gary Brown. The Titans still have some question marks on the mound, but should win the Big West.

UC Irvine: Not as good
The Eaters have several talented pitchers including Eric Pettis, Danny Bibona and Christian Bergman, but replacing weekend starters Scott Gorgen and Bryce Stowell will be a tough chore. The offense will miss sparkplug Ollie Linton and leader Aaron Lowenstein, but welcome the return of senior shortstop Ben Orloff, who leads by example on and off the field. The Eaters probably won't have an electric offense, but the pitching staff should once again be good. We'll get our first look at Irvine at the Astros College Classic in February.

Texas A&M: Better
The Aggies will miss shortstop Jose Duran and third baseman Dane Carter, but the rest of the team appears to be in great shape. The pitching staff welcomes back Travis Starling, Kyle Thebeau, Brooks Raley, Barret Loux and Clayton Ehlert. The Aggies also welcome right-hander Alex Wilson -- who missed last season with an injury -- to the mix. Though the offense is somewhat of a question mark entering the spring, the pitching staff is one of the nation's best. Could this be the year Childress returns to Omaha as a head coach?

Arizona: Not as good
After reaching the super regional round last season, the Wildcats have huge holes to fill the spring. They still should be an NCAA regional team this season. The Wildcats must find a way to replace C.J. Ziegler, Jon Gaston, Daniel Schlereth, Mike Colla, Ryan Perry and others, but have hope because of the return of key cogs such as weekend starter Preston Guilmet, reliever Jason Stoffel and position player Brad Glenn. The offense certainly is a question mark entering the spring, but the pitching staff should be in excellent shape if Guilmet returns to his sophomore form. It will be an interesting season for Arizona.

Wichita State: Not as good
The Shockers always seem to reload each season, but they'll need some additional luck this spring. Though WSU has plenty of talent on campus, it has some major holes to fill this season. Position players Andy Dirks, Conor Gillaspie and Josh Workman are gone, while the entire weekend rotation must be replaced with the departures of Aaron Shafer, Rob Musgrave and Anthony Capra. If coach Gene Stephenson can lead this team to another super regional appearance this spring, it would be an impressive feat. I view the Shockers as a team that will get better as the season moves along.

N.C. State: Not as good
The Wolfpack took a step forward last season by reaching the super regional round, but has some huge holes to fill this spring. The pitching staff should be fine with Joey Cutler and Jimmy Gillheeney leading the charge, but the offense leaves something to be desired. N.C. State must replace five of its top six hitters this season, including Ryan Pond, Matt Payne, Marcus Jones, Jeremy Synan and Tommy Foschi. The Wolfpack welcomed a talented class of newcomers to campus this past fall. For the program to get back to a super regional this season, the newcomers must make a quick transition.

Oklahoma State: Better
The Cowboys have some tough holes to fill with the departures of contributors Jordy Mercer, Matt Hague, Rebel Ridling, Donnie Webb and Luis Flores, but this team has a chance to be better this season. Tom Belza and Neil Medchill are top returning hitters while weekend starters Andy Oliver and Tyler Lyons are the nation's top weekend duo. The Cowboys aren't going to lose many series with Oliver and Lyons on the front end of the weekend rotation. The question, however, is how long will Oliver be out of commission because of a suspension? We'll get that answer by the end of next week.

San Diego: Not as good
The Toreros once again will have a plethora of talent this spring, but finally must show they can establish some consistency at the plate. James Meador and Victor Sanchez must have productive campaigns this spring. While the offense still is a question mark, the pitching staff should be fine even without former weekend starters Brian Matusz and Josh Romanski. Kyle Blair, Sammy Solis and AJ Griffin are excellent pitchers, while right-hander Darrin Campbell could be a pleasant surprise. The Toreros aren't going to allow many runs this season. But as with previous campaigns, the offense must hold up its end of the bargain.

Coastal Carolina: Not as good
After taking another step forward last season with a trip to a super regional, the Chanticleers go back to work this spring with hopes of reaching the College World Series. Reaching that goal, however, will be an incredibly tough chore. The Chants must replace three of their top hitters this spring, including Dock Doyle, David Sappelt and Tommy Baldridge. While Scott Woodward and the offense hopes to overcome those losses this spring, the pitching staff's success could hinge on Bobby Gagg's ability to get back in school the next few weeks. The Chants have some slight rebuilding to do this season, but should be fine.

Pepperdine: Better
The Waves have failed to take the next step the past few seasons and must do so this season without outfielder Eric Thames and shortstop Chase d'Arnaud, who signed pro contracts this past summer. Despite the personnel losses, the Waves might have their best chance to get to Omaha this season. Nate Newman returns to lead the weekend rotation while Scott Alexander, Nick Gaudi, Robert Dickmann and Matt Bywater hope to have impressive campaigns. While the pitching staff is in excellent shape, the offense should be good but not great with the return of Denny Duron, Ryan Heroy, Trent Diedrich and Bryce Mendonca.

Missouri: Not as good
The Tigers were loaded last season and failed to get past the regional round. So, without ace pitcher Aaron Crow and top power hitter Jacob Priday this season, they finally hope to take the next step. That will be a tough chore. Junior sophomore right-hander Kyle Gibson takes over Crow's former role, while Nick Tepesch and Ian Berger are primed to have impressive campaigns. While the pitching staff has some questions to answer, the offense still is in good shape with the return of leading hitter Aaron Senne, Ryan Lollis and Steve Gray. Could the Tigers actually surprise this spring?

Nebraska: Not as good
If coach Mike Anderson can guide this team to an NCAA regional this spring, I'd consider the season a success. Though the Huskers have some talent on campus, they have the tough chore of replacing several key players. For starters, they must replace weekend starters Johnny Dorn, Thad Weber and Aaron Pribanic. They also must replace Dan Jennings, who had a 3.39 ERA in 77 innings last season. At the plate, the Huskers must find a way to replace Jake Opitz, Mitch Abeita and Bryce Nimmo. Jeff Tezak, DJ Belfonte, Cody Neer and Jake Mort must have productive campaigns for the Huskers to succeed.

Long Beach State: Not as good
The Dirtbags have a plethora of talent on campus, but have several holes to fill this spring. Weekend starters Andrew Liebel and Vance Worley and closer Bryan Shaw are gone, while position players Danny Espinosa, Shane Peterson, Jason Tweedy, Jason Corder and Travis Howell must be replaced. The Dirtbags need sophomore pitcher Jake Thompson to become a front-line ace this spring, while the offense prepares to lean on the shoulders of Devin Lohman and Steve Tinoco, among others. History suggests the Dirtbags will be fine on the mound, but I'm not sure you can say the same about the offense.

Texas: Better
The Longhorns are without outfielders Kyle Russell and Jordan Danks this season but still are in good shape. Though UT certainly will miss Russell and Danks, it believes the offense will be fine with the return of Preston Clark, Brandon Belt, Cameron Rupp, Michael Torres and David Hernandez. The pitching staff also should be in good shape with the return of weekend starters Chance Ruffin and Austin Wood. Brandon Workman and Cole Green also are expected to have good campaigns. The 'Horns have failed to meet expectations the past three seasons. Will this season be different?

California: Not as good
The Golden Bears entered last season with much hype but only managed to finish the campaign with a regional berth and an overall record of 33-21-2. The Bears finally hope to take the next step this season, but that'll be tough with some key personnel losses. The Bears must replace leading hitters David Cooper and Josh Satin and Charlie Cutler, who finished last season with a .321 batting average and a pair of homers. They also have some tough holes to fill on the mound with the departures of weekend starter Tyson Ross and reliever Matt Gorgen. Advancing to a super regional would be exceeding expectations.

Georgia Tech: Better
After reaching the Athens regional final last season, the Yellow Jackets enter the '09 campaign with extra motivation. That could be bad news for opposing teams. The Jackets certainly aren't flawless entering the spring, but they're certainly in good shape. The Jackets must replace leading hitter Charlie Blackmon and pitchers David Duncan and Eddie Burns, but welcomes back several key cogs. Tech should have a potent offense with the return of Derek Dietrich, Jeff Rowland, Luke Murton and Tony Plagman. They also welcome back pitchers Deck McGuire and Zach Von Tersch, who each had good '08 campaigns.

Kendall Rogers is the college baseball editor for Rivals.com and Yahoo! Sports. He can be reached at rogersk@yahoo-inc.com.